Thinking back as far as the sixth grade, investing has always been an enjoyable pastime. Over the years my focus has narrowed from the stock market in general to a small subset of specific technology companies - those fledgling corporations which are attempting to develop and then actually capitalize on some sort of discontinuous innovation. In theory, the primary goal is to make money but there are fringe benefits to be had as well. One such perk being the attempt to visualize the world as a better place while other pluses manifest themselves in an inherent fascination with the interactions of risk/reward, time/value, and comfort/change. Lastly, the exercise of studying the enabling technology behind the imminent gizmo both creates and satisfies curiosity. Needless to say that my grasp of the science is rudimentary at best and the tuition for this learning, i.e. the investment itself, has all too often proven to be expensive.
Regardless the pros and cons, solid state batteries are currently front and center in the never-ending search for the "next great thing". Now the notions of energy, fast charge, cost, cycle life, and safety are somewhat relatable but the Genie in the Bottle resides with such unfathomable concepts as energy density, voltage stability, and Coulombic efficiency to name but a very few. My IQ quickly short circuits but for unknown reasons I remain undeterred.
Recently, I listened in on an investment "webinar" presented by a national investment bank. The moderator interviewed the CEO and CFO of a company whose mission is in part to transform energy storage. The presentation was dummied down to the degree that I was actually able to glean a tidbit of appreciation. A few days later, I was reading an article authored by a man who had obviously listened to the same talk that I had heard. The "journalist" confirmed most of the thoughts that had been presented those three days prior. However, one item was subtly reversed to the degree that I barely noticed it on the writer's first iteration. By the third repetition with ever increasing weight, it was obvious that there was an agenda beyond the simple reporting of the facts. Yes, the seeds of angst had been sowed and my limited comprehension was shaken to core. A single shock wave, and a small one at that, had left my investment thesis quivering like a house of cards.
The term "FUD" is generally accredited to Gene Amdahl in 1975. Mr. Amdahl had left one of America's great, iconic corporations and ventured out on his own to create a better mousetrap...make that computer. Once the machine had been perfected and the assembly line fired up, the only thing left to do was to sell them....and this is were things got sticky. Potential customers seemed to know all about Gene's creation before the entrepreneur even walked in the door. Apparently, the vast sales force of Gene's former employer had beat Amdahl to the punch and infected the potential market with the germs of mistrust - fear, uncertainty, and doubt - in regards to the quality, reliability, and durability of the johnny-come-lately product.
Of course FUD has been with us long before 1975. Genesis 3:4-5 says this with respect to The Garden, Eve, and the tree of the knowledge of good and evil:
Did you catch that? Theologians of yesteryear might summarize that conversation as temptation pleading with a base envy of God Himself. Present day pundits on social media strapped for time and nuance mayhap simply say FOMO - fear of missing out.
Today, disinformation applied as a competitive advantage is everywhere within the digital realm and employed in the fields of politics, public relations, investing, marketing, sales, and my personal favorite, polling. Pervasiveness in spades. It's doubtful that would be the case if the practice didn't reap benefits for those telling the lie. It has been said that all good lies contain an element of truth. No....to create real havoc, tell the truth with a subtle lie cloaked within. The art of FUD has become a science.
Pain is the body's way of saying "Hey! Knot-head! Wake up! Something is wrong!". Likewise, fear is a survival mechanism, instrumental to our wellbeing. A degree of fear, uncertainty, and doubt is healthy, God-given, and available to us all. Indeed, fear grounded in truth is liberating. Fear stemming from lies is suffocating. It is our responsibility to seek truth in all things - all the more-so when we find our motivations governed by fear. Then, by the Grace of God peace will be ours within the understanding.
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